MLB · Fri, May 22, 2026
Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
Final score: Houston Astros 4 – 2 Chicago Cubs. 11 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 7 | 1.91 | +12.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.51 | +59.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.51 | +50.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.47 | +47.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +39.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.78 | +25.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +14.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.00 | +14.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.62 | +7.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.93 | +5.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Carson Kelly | Chicago Cubs | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.65 | +0.0% | 0 | LOSS |
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